FameEX Weekly Market Trend | August 1, 2024

1. BTC Market Trend

From July 29 to 31, the BTC spot price swung from $64,582.86 to $69,937, a 8.29% range. 

In the past three days, important statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) over the past three days are as follows:

1) On July 31, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would continue to fully focus on its dual mandate. Delaying interest rate cuts could excessively weaken the economy; rate cuts are getting closer but have not yet reached that point. The Fed does not have the authority to issue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and is not seeking authorization to issue CBDCs.

2) On July 31, according to the Fed FOMC statement, the unemployment rate has risen slightly but remains low. The Fed reiterated that it would not cut interest rates until there is greater confidence in controlling inflation.

3) On July 31, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic stated that the next interest rate action could be a cut or remain unchanged.

Palestinian Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack during the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president in Tehran, Iran’s capital. Hamas confirmed the leader's death and accused Israel of being responsible. Israeli Hamas research expert Meir Litvak suggested that the Middle East situation poses a significant risk of escalation. From Iran’s perspective, this is an infringement on its sovereignty. Iran’s Supreme Leader has vowed retaliation.

Retired CIA intelligence analyst Larry Johnson stated that this operation was evidently supported and foreseen by the United States and the United Kingdom, and it may have crossed a red line. Iran or Hezbollah in Lebanon are unlikely to show any restraint in seeking revenge.

After Haniyeh’s assassination, the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, northwestern Iran, raised a red “revenge flag”. In Shia tradition, the red flag symbolizes unjust bloodshed and a call for vengeance for those murdered.

Iran’s UN mission indicated that (regarding the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh) the response measure would be a “special operation”.

Kamala Harris is considering Michigan Senator Gary Peters as her vice-presidential candidate for her 2024 U.S. presidential campaign. Peters, who enjoys strong support from labor unions, could enhance Harris’s campaign strength in key battleground states. Notably, Peters has an anti-cryptocurrency policy stance. A Harris campaign advisor clarified that resuming contact with the cryptocurrency industry is not aimed at securing donations but at paving the way for a reasonable regulatory framework.

According to The Block, the Terra blockchain reported a security vulnerability in its network that led to token theft. An unknown attacker exploited a known vulnerability related to a third-party module called IBC hooks, which facilitates cross-chain contract calls and token movements. The perpetrator used this vulnerability to steal assets, including USDC stablecoins and Astroport tokens. Initial estimates suggest that approximately $3 million worth of tokens may have been affected. After discovering the incident, Terra implemented an emergency measure, pausing the Terra chain at block height 11,430,400, during which transactions will not be processed. Terra will work with validators on Terra (phoenix-1) to apply an emergency patch to fix the suspected vulnerability.

Source: BTCUSDT | FameEX 

From August 1 to August 4, closely monitor Iran’s retaliation against Israel. If the “special operation” only results in the assassination of a leader, it is unlikely to significantly impact global asset prices (including cryptocurrencies), as Israel can quickly appoint a new prime minister even if Netanyahu is targeted. However, if Iran’s retaliation causes greater losses to Israel’s interests, Israel will undoubtedly retaliate, further escalating the risk of war among Middle Eastern countries. This heightened risk aversion in global capital markets is likely to lead to a temporary decline in the prices of assets other than gold.

The sell orders for the ETH spot at $4,700 and buy orders at $2,500, as well as the sell orders for the BTC spot at $72,500, $77,500, and $92,000, and the buy order at $42,950, should still remain in place and do not need to be canceled.

2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators

Overall market cap analysis, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

24h trading volume, source:https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

3. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high. 

Source: CoinAnk

In recent days, the open interest in BTC contracts has been slightly decreasing, while the open interest in ETH contracts has been increasing more rapidly.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: CoinAnk

Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.

4. Industry Roundup

1) On July 29, Elon Musk stated that he believes Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies are valuable. He will not promote any cryptocurrency, advising investors to be cautious of deepfake videos. He has a particular fondness for Dogecoin and likes dogs and memes.

2) On July 29, a Bitcoin address dormant for 11.8 years was activated, containing 37 BTC.

3) On July 29, the official X account for the Solana-based memecoin NEIRO was frozen for violating regulations.

4) On July 29, a Russian diplomat mentioned that El Salvador proposed using cryptocurrency to settle trade between the two countries.

5) On July 29, from July 22 to 28, Solana became the blockchain network with the highest weekly fee revenue, surpassing Ethereum for the first time.

6) On July 29, Vitalik Buterin celebrated Ethereum’s 9th birthday and announced he would give a keynote speech titled “The Next 10 Years of Ethereum” in Tokyo.

7) On July 29, Qatar re-evaluated its stance on cryptocurrencies after a ban and committed to establishing regulatory frameworks by the end of 2024.

8) On July 29, Slovenia issued the EU’s first digital sovereign bond, based on the Canton blockchain.

9) On July 29, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission added Proxinex and its related websites to its list of suspicious virtual asset trading platforms.

10) On July 30, Vitalik Buterin noted significant progress for Ethereum in 2024 regarding fees, transaction inclusion times, and wallet security.

11) On July 30, FTX customers should choose between the Bahamas or U.S. options before 4:00 AM on August 17.

12) On July 30, the Fibonacci Web3 Summer Blockchain Conference was successfully held in Hangzhou, China.

13) On July 30, the Japan Cryptocurrency Business Association and JVCEA jointly submitted a request to the government for tax reforms related to cryptocurrency in 2025.

14) On July 30, the UK Law Commission proposed creating a new property category for cryptocurrencies.

15) On July 30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the decision to continue interest rate hikes this year would depend on data performance.

16) On July 30, the Russian Duma passed laws legalizing cross-border digital currency payments and cryptocurrency mining, with plans to launch cross-border crypto payment services by the end of the year.

17) On July 31, the top ten revenue-generating cryptocurrency projects include Tron, Solana, Pump, and Ethereum.

18) On July 31, Pantera Capital reported that the median base salary for women in the cryptocurrency industry is 15% higher than that for men.

19) On July 31, Donald Trump’s campaign raised $21 million at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. Trump introduced sneakers supporting Bitcoin payments.

20) On July 31, Matrixport reported that Bitcoin currently has a non-correlated relationship with the Nasdaq.

21) On July 31, Wemix.fi suspended lending services due to issues with stablecoin liquidation.

22) On July 31, the Eurozone July CPI preliminary annual rate was 2.6%, compared to the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.5%. The Eurozone July CPI monthly rate was 0%, compared to the expected -0.10% and the previous 0.20%. The Eurozone Q2 GDP preliminary annual rate was 0.6%, slightly exceeding market expectations, marking a new high since Q2 2023.

23) On July 31, the Bank for International Settlements and the Bank of England stated that the balance sheets of stablecoin assets could be subject to regulation.

24) On July 31, Lloyd’s of London-supported insurance policies now support cryptocurrency payments via Ethereum.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.