FameEX Weekly Market Trend | March 4, 2024

1. Market Trend

From Feb. 29 to Mar. 3, the BTC price swung from $58,700.00 to $64,000.00, with a volatility of 9.02%. The prior report noted: MAs are distant from the current price with steep candlestick slopes, heightening stampede event risks. It’s wise to wait for Bitcoin to hit $58,000 before considering entry. The stampede hit at 01:00 AM (UTC+8) on Feb. 29, with Bitcoin surging to $64,000, then swiftly reversing, dropping nearly $6,000 within an hour. Other mainstream and altcoins had amplitudes of around 20 points, with high trading volume. Futures traders with 5x leverage faced liquidation, but Bitcoin rebounded swiftly. Yet, If such events repeat, optimism may wane, even in a bullish market. Bitcoin’s uptrend, with MAs converging upwards, eases market fundamental pressure. Investors can wait for positions near $62,500 for new highs and hold existing ones for more gains. In the short term, another sharp surge is improbable. Hence, expect a stable, low-volatility uptrend, following the trend.

Source: BTCUSDT | Binance Spot 

From Feb. 29 to Mar. 3, the price of ETH/BTC fluctuated between 0.05392 and 0.05643, a 4.65% range. In the previous report, it was mentioned that individuals in a cash position can consider adding their positions near 0.05450. In the past few days, ETH/BTC has reached this level. Currently, ETH/BTC shows relative weakness, and people who entered the market may have slight unrealized losses (due to BTC’s strength over ETH and ETH’s relatively stable trend, which is just digesting previous profits, so there is no need to worry). Recently, BTC has once again led the charge in the market, while ETH has taken a backseat. In a bull market, sector rotation is particularly evident, and currently, ETH is in a relatively weak period. It is wise to build positions at this time and wait for ETH to surge again.

Source: ETHBTC | Binance Spot 

Based on overall analysis, currently, BTC is steadily climbing upwards, but the likelihood of a significant surge is low. However, if it breaks through new highs, there may be another occurrence of single-day gains exceeding 10%. The current market situation has provided opportunities for many altcoins. March is anticipated to be favorable for altcoins. BTC will likely hover between its current position and new highs for a period. Therefore, the highest investment returns at this stage are likely to come from accumulating high-quality altcoins. For example, L2 projects (such as ARB, OP, etc.) have not seen significant gains yet and are suitable for accumulation. Similarly, coins like COMP, which are still at historical lows, can be considered for accumulation. Overall, the market is currently in a bullish trend, and it is advisable to focus on buying opportunities. Avoid blind shorting due to fear of missing out or fear of high prices.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 index of 1.71 is over the DCA level ($54,630), indicating the need to be cautious of investment risks.

Source: OKLink

2. Perpetual Futures

In general, the 7-day cumulative funding rates for the popular coins across major exchanges are positive, indicating that long leverages are relatively high.

Source: coinsoto

In the recent period, there has been a slight rise in BTC contract open interest, and the ETH contract open interest remained stable.

Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:

Source: coinsoto

3. Industry Roundup

1) On February 29, BlackRock reported that the net asset value of its spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT had exceeded $9 billion.

2) On February 29, Liang Fengyi stated that service providers must end their operations in Hong Kong by May 31 if they have not submitted a license application.

3) On February 29, Coinbase surged to become the world’s fourth-largest publicly traded exchange.

4) On March 1, the Nasdaq hit a new closing high, surpassing its October 2021 record.

5) On March 1, Bitcoin priced in multiple currencies, such as the Japanese yen and British pound, reached historic highs.

6) On March 1, Elon Musk filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO, Altman.

7) On March 2, Fed Chair Powell stated, “We are nearing the end of our normalization efforts.”

8) On March 2, according to an SEC commissioner, regulators are considering an Ethereum spot ETF.

9) On March 3, data showed that the top four Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively added over 52,000 Bitcoins in the 8th week.

10) On March 3, BlackRock’s IBIT asset under management surpassed that of the largest silver ETF, ranking third among commodity ETFs.

Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.